Allow me to introduce my latest Decoded Science article, “One Non-Bayesian Approach to the Two Envelope Paradox“.

How can each envelope contain more money than the other? Do they end up becoming more valuable as you switch back and forth?

What is the Two Envelope Puzzle?

"Stacks of Cash", image by 401(K) 2012

Suppose you had a choice of payslips next Friday, but each is in its own sealed envelope. Your boss says that one envelope is worth twice as much as the other. You choose one.

Then some math wizard proves to you that the envelope you didn’t choose has a higher expected value than the one you selected. Should you switch? And keep switching, because the other envelope is still likely to be worth more?

Could it be true that just one bird in the bush is worth more than one in the hand?

Sometimes the mathematics of calculating a probability, like an elf from The Lord of the Rings, says both yes and no. My article explains this math paradox, and what it means for setting up real world situations.

Self-Promotion for my Two Envelope Article

As per my usual practice, my Xanga blog (”Two Envelopes, Always the Wrong Choice“) also publicizes my article. So does my Blog of Writing, where “One Paradox in Two Envelopes” has a theme-based writing tip.

Professional Writing by DeHaan Services

DeHaan Services writes web site or advertising copy for clients. Our skills are demonstrated in online articles in Decoded Science, Environmental Graffiti, Squidoo and Suite 101. That’s why we highlight these online articles on this blog page.

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Thank you for reading about my article concerning the math paradox of the “two envelope puzzle”.