Quickly following the start of a series on “probability” in Decoded Science comes “The Probability of the Allais Paradox in Lottery Preferences“.

Do Mathematicians Doubt an Axiom in Light of the Allais Paradox?

Actually, some mathematicians are calling the Axiom of Independence into question, based on the way so many people “fall prey” to the Allais paradox.

Here’s the situation. You could spend some money on one lottery ticket or another. Presumably you base your choice by reviewing “the odds of winning” and “the payoff if I win”. So you choose, and you’re about to buy a ticket.

Then you learn that both lotteries have “sweetened the pot” with absolutely identical new payoffs at identical odds. These new payoffs only come into play if you had lost under the old rules.

The Independence Axiom says you should not change your preference. Since the new sweeteners are identical for both lotteries, only the original conditions should influence your choice.
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The Allais Paradox is that, depending on the value and odds of the sweetener, many people may well switch their preferences. Read the article to learn more.

As always, I also promote my article in my Blog of Writing, where “Does the Allais Paradox Sabotage Lotteries?” includes a fabulous double writing tip.

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Thank you for reading about how the Allais paradox may sabotage your gambling.