After answering this question for Americans in my Decoded Science article, “Risk Assessment for Skydiving versus Grocery Shopping“, I decided to sketch an outline of how Canadians might assess the dangers of these two activities.

The Skydiving versus Grocery Shopping Question

The question for “Ask the Expert” was, Are you more likely to be killed while skydiving than on a trip to or from a grocery store?

A Quick Canadian Risk Assessment for Grocery Shopping versus Skydiving

We need to pick several numbers to assess these risks.

Skydiving

Let’s borrow the United States Parachute Association’s statistics for skydiving deaths in 2011 and 2012: 0.71 deaths per 100,000 jumps.

The Canadian Population and Grocery Trips

Statistics Canada reports the total Canadian population for the 2011 census. “On May 10, 2011, 33,476,688 people were enumerated in the 2011 Census of Population”.

I would argue that, on average, everyone travels to a grocery store once a week. Small children might go with a parent; some buy groceries several times a week; others eat in institutions. That makes 52 trips per year.

So we calculate the overall annual number of trips to a grocery store as “33,476,688 people * 52 weeks = 1,740,787,776 people-trips to grocery stores”.

On the other hand, we might average 10 trips per week each. Many would go to school or work 5 times per week. Social outings and pleasure jaunts account for others. The people who buy groceries are likely to also run other errands. That makes 17,407,877,760 Canadian trips annually.

So let’s say that 10% of the weekly trips are to grocery stores, but accidental death is equally likely regardless of the destination.

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Canadian Mortality Rates

I did not delve deeply enough into Stats Canada’s mortality tables, so let’s just use their 2009 figure of 10,250 accidental deaths from all causes in one year. (I used American accidents on land, which may have included slips and falls; but added homicides).

So let’s count “10,250 / 33,476,688 =  3 accidental deaths per 100,000 people” in one year. (By comparison, the USA has about 39 deaths/100,000 annually).

Let’s assume that 80% of these accidental deaths happened while traveling, whether on foot, by bicycle, car or whatever. That brings us down to “10,250 * 0.8 = 8,200 accidental travelling deaths per year”.

The rate of deaths from travelling is “8,200 /  17,407,877,760 = 0.047 deaths per 100,000 person-trips”. If one-tenth of those are trips to a grocery store, the rate is even lower: 0.0047 per 100,000.

My Conclusion to Buying Groceries versus Skydiving

There are lots of assumptions in this article, which serious digging into reliable statistics would resolve. This article shows a path to follow for those who want to learn how to assess simple risks.

My conclusion is that in Canada, you are much less likely to die in any one trip to a grocery store than in any one skydiving session.

Regardless, skydiving is remarkably safe. You’re much more likely to survive a parachute jump than to win the grand prize in Powerball (see “Winning Powerball Tickets in Arizona and Missouri: How to Calculate the (Slim) Odds“) or in 6/49 in Canada. (“How to Calculate Lottery Odds for 6/49 or Powerball“).

My other publicity entry for this article asks “Should Online Magazines or Bloggers Ask Questions?” since Decoded Science invites readers to make suggestions in that “Ask the Expert” section. That expands into my writing tip for the day.

If you’re in the market for used sports gear, eBay Canada is likely to offer you a discounted price.

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Thank you for reading about risk assessment for grocery shopping versus parachute jumping.