Could Statistics Support the 108% Voter Fraud Allegation?

My latest article in Decoded Science, “A Statistical Method for 2012 Election Vote Fraud Allegations“, shows one approach to use statistics from opinion polls to support or oppose an allegation of election fraud.

What was the “108% Registration” Allegation?

"Vote in the 2012 Presidential Election" image by DonkeyHotey
“Vote in the 2012 Presidential Election” image by DonkeyHotey

After the USA’s 2012 election, several allegations or implications of voter fraud were raised. One allegation involved “108% registration in Wood County, Ohio”, where more people were on the voter registration list than voting-age adults per the 2010 census. The implication was that the excess registrations directly led to Obama winning the 2012 election in Wood County, Ohio.

My article explains one way to analyze previous opinion polls to decide how credible such an allegation might be.

By the way, I’d recently written “Reliable Pollster Report Card in 2012 Presidential Election” for Decoded Science to demonstrate another statistical use of opinion polls.

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Thank you for reading about one way to use statistics to analyze claims of election fraud.

2 thoughts on “Could Statistics Support the 108% Voter Fraud Allegation?”

  1. I can’t remember the details but I did read something on MSN.com that said one party brought in busloads of illiterate Somalis to vote. Whether or not that changed the outcome of the Ohio election is difficult to determine and irrelevant to me, as I’m an independent who dislikes both parties fairly equally.

    The 108% is now historical political “trivia” in a way… though still important.

    I think I read that there are 45,000 Somali refugees in the Ohio area, but you would have to look that up to confirm it. It sounds like an impossibly high number.

    1. Tina, thanks…I had not known of the Somali situation.
      My main point was that, if the results are reasonably close to the predictions, then there’s no statistical basis for disputing the results. Most polls had Ohio overall as close or a toss-up; either Gallup and Rasmussen also called a sample of “Somali refugees” and incorporated them into their predictions, or there were not enough to make a difference.
      Of course “close enough” is the 5% or whatever margin of polling prediction error, and “difference” would have been about 5,000 votes in Wood county.

      One site, perhaps Politico.com ?, said that Ohio voters stay on the voter registration list for 4 years unless they specifically inform the officials that they’re moving. If they don’t vote again by the 4th year, they’re supposed to be dropped. That could account for Ohio’s registration exceeding their census of voting-age adults.
      But I will leave it up to the Americans to defend their own civil rights. We Canadians have enough challenges in our own democracy.

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