Once the USA completed their 2012 presidential election, the next task we observers should undertake is to rate the pollsters and pundits who made predictions for months and months. How can we create a report card for Gallup or Rasmussen or the new pundit in the press, Nate Silver?

“Reliable Pollster Report Card in 2012 Presidential Election” presents my sample report card in Decoded Science, showing how to make a simple statistical evaluation.

Statistical Math Generates a Report Card for Pollster Reliability

Statisticians would review the past results and apply mathematical processes, such as determining the standard deviation, to create a “report card”. You could use a product like Microsoft Office Excel, or a statistical calculator from an electronics store, to actually crunch the numbers.

I’d actually built the first guide to how accurate Gallup and Rasmussen had been through Obama’s first victory in 2008, back in May 2012. From “How Statistics May Help Select a Reliable Election Poll“, which went up to 2008, to the current article’s 2012 results, Gallup improved slightly but the Rasmussen organization had its first setback.

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Thank you for reading about creating a report card for opinion pollsters.